January 29, 2026

From Hype to Hardware: 2026 Marks the Dawn of the Post-Smartphone AI Era

Value Creation, Not Model Size, Becomes the New Battleground

In 2026, the global technology industry will pivot from the race to build ever-larger generative AI models toward a more practical question: how artificial intelligence will actually be embedded in devices and daily life. After several years of massive capital inflows and escalating development costs, concerns about overheated investment are mounting. The coming year is widely expected to become a turning point in which the true value of generative AI will be tested.

The most symbolic shift is the anticipated arrival of devices for the post-smartphone era. OpenAI has announced that it will unveil its first dedicated AI device sometime in 2026. The product is rumored to be a compact, voice-only device with no display, designed to free users from constant screen dependency. Nearly two decades after the iPhone reshaped modern life in 2007, the smartphone is now seen by some of its original creators as a problem rather than a solution. Jony Ive, the legendary designer behind the iPhone, has publicly expressed regret over what he describes as smartphone addiction and is now collaborating with OpenAI on the new hardware concept.

Meta is also racing into this space with the development of AI-powered smart glasses. Using transparent lenses, the device projects digital information into the user’s field of view, merging the physical and digital worlds. In December 2025, Meta recruited a senior executive who had led Apple’s design team for nearly 20 years, underscoring its ambition to challenge Apple’s dominance in consumer hardware. Apple, meanwhile, is preparing its own counteroffensive. The company is expected to release its first foldable iPhone as early as 2026 and is working on a major overhaul of its voice assistant, Siri. Although Apple revolutionized industries with the iPod and iPhone, it has lost its technological edge in the generative AI boom and is under pressure to reclaim leadership.

The economic impact of what is now being called physical AI is projected to be enormous. India-based Survicone Consulting estimates that the market will reach $68.5 billion by 2034, more than 13 times its 2025 size. Morgan Stanley predicts that over one billion humanoid robots could be operating worldwide by 2050. Elon Musk and other tech leaders have even suggested that artificial general intelligence, or AGI, may emerge as early as 2026. Yet enthusiasm is increasingly tempered by skepticism. MIT Technology Review recently observed that GPT-5, released by OpenAI in August 2025, failed to meet expectations, with 95 percent of companies reportedly seeing little value in adopting it. While OpenAI plans to release a new platform model in January and Meta is set to introduce a successor to its Llama model by March, doubts are growing about whether incremental model improvements alone can justify continued investment.

In 2025, concerns about overheating in AI investment spread, and in 2026, investors’ expectations are likely to be adjusted, marking a critical turning point for the industry.　OpenAI and its rival Anthropic are preparing for possible IPOs as early as next year, even as calls for stronger AI governance intensify. The era of blind optimism is fading. What lies ahead is a far more demanding phase in which the future of generative AI will be decided not by the scale of its models, but by its ability to deliver tangible, trustworthy value to society.